Long-Term Area Statistics for Maximum Crest Height Under a Fixed Platform Deck

Abstract

As offshore reservoirs are depleted, the seabed may subside. Furthermore, the extreme crests estimates are now commonly higher than obtained previously due to improved understanding of statistics of non-linear irregular waves. Consequently, bottom fixed installations which have previously had sufficient clearance between the deck and the sea surface may be in a situation where wave impact with the deck must be considered at relevant probability levels. In the present paper, we investigate the long-term area statistics for maximum crest height under a fixed platform deck for 2nd order short crested and long crested sea based on numerical simulations as a function of platform deck dimension for jackets. The results are for one location in the northern North Sea, but some key results are also reported and verified for a more benign southern North Sea location. Time domain simulations for long crested and short crested waves over a spatial domain with dimension of a platform deck are performed, and relevant statistics for airgap assessment determined. Second order waves are simulated for the different cells in the (Hs, Tp) scatter diagram for Torsethaugen two-peak wave spectrum for long-crested and short-crested sea. A total of 1000 3-hour sea states are generated per cell, and time series generated for 160 spatial points under a platform deck. Short-term and long-term statistics are established for the maximum crest height as function of platform dimension; inline and transverse to the wave direction, and over the area. Results are given for the linear sea and for the second order time series. The annual q-probability estimates for the maximum crest height over area as a function of platform dimension is determined for a location at the Norwegian Continental Shelf by weighting the short-term statistics for the individual cells in the scatter diagram with the long-term probability of occurrence of the sea state. To reduce the number of numerical second order simulations, the effect of excluding cells that have a negligible effect on the long term extreme crest estimate is discussed. The percentiles in the distribution of maximum crest (over area) in design sea states that corresponds to the extreme values obtained from the long-term analysis are determined for long crested and short crested sea. The increase in the extreme crest over an area compared to the point in space estimate is estimated for both linear and second order surface elevation.