Longshore drift produced by climate-modulated monsoons and typhoons in the South China Sea

Abstract

Abstract Monsoons and typhoons impact the tropical coastal zones through their signature on winds and waves, leading to increased vulnerability – through erosion, marine submersion and flooding – of an ever growing coastal population. This study addresses wave-driven coastal impacts in the South China Sea (SCS), particularly along the Vietnam coast. Using 38 years of offshore wave fields from ERA-Interim reanalysis, we assess the seasonal and interannual variability of wave patterns, storminess, and wave-induced alongshore sediment transport (longshore drift). Results suggest a large seasonal coastal impact due to high-energy, northeasterly waves generated by winter monsoon winds. The net annual sediment transport is southward with significant interannual and decadal variations (20% standard deviation with particular years at 40% of the mean), presenting strong correlations with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) regime changes. The regime shift of 1998, from a warm to a cold PDO phase characterized by more La Nina events, is associated with an increase in winter wave energy and thus higher sediment transport (about 10%). The typhoon activity in the SCS is partly associated with that of the Pacific Northwest basin, but as a large semi-enclosed sea, presents local differences. It is positively correlated with La Nina in summer and with El Nino Modoki in winter. The summer correlation to ENSO phases is opposite to that of the whole Northwest Pacific due to competing local and remote mechanisms driving cyclone formation and trajectory. For the same reason, the effects of ENSO and PDO phases are opposite in the SCS: during the last cold PDO phase, typhoon frequency was reduced by 20%, with significant net impact on estimated sediment transport. The typhoon contribution to sediment transport is a 15% reinforcement of southward transport due essentially to winter activity. If winter monsoon and typhoons appear to work together on average, their low-frequency variability are out-of-phase. This is particularly clear at decadal scale, as cold PDO phases seem favorable to strong winter monsoon waves but detrimental to SCS typhoon numbers. These results confirm that regional climate variability (together with human factors affecting river sediment supply, coastal management of beach-dune systems, land subsidence, mangrove deforestation) is an essential part of coastal vulnerability that needs to be better assessed.