Longitudinal network models and permutation‐uniform Markov chains

Abstract

AbstractConsider longitudinal networks whose edges turn on and off according to a discrete‐time Markov chain with exponential‐family transition probabilities. We characterize when their joint distributions are also exponential families with the same parameter, improving data reduction. Further we show that the permutation‐uniform subclass of these chains permit interpretation as an independent, identically distributed sequence on the same state space. We then apply these ideas to temporal exponential random graph models, for which permutation uniformity is well suited, and discuss mean‐parameter convergence, dyadic independence, and exchangeability. Our framework facilitates our introducing a new network model; simplifies analysis of some network and autoregressive models from the literature, including by permitting closed‐form expressions for maximum likelihood estimates for some models; and facilitates applying standard tools to longitudinal‐network Markov chains from either asymptotics or single‐observation exponential random graph models.