Longitudinal Associations Between Disaster Damage and Falls/Fear of Falling in Older Adults: 9-Year Follow-Up of Survivors of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami.

Abstract

Fear of falling and falls are common in older adults. However, their associations with natural disaster exposures remain poorly understood. This study aims to examine longitudinal associations between disaster damage with fear of falling/falls among older disaster survivors. In this natural experiment study, the baseline survey (4,957 valid responses) took place 7 months before the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, and 3 follow-ups were conducted in 2013, 2016, and 2020. Exposures were different types of disaster damage and community social capital. Outcomes were fear of falling and falls (including incident and recurrent falls). We used lagged outcomes in logistic models adjusting for covariates and further examined instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) as a mediator. The baseline sample had a mean (standard deviation) age of 74.8 (7.1) years; 56.4% were female. Financial hardship was associated with fear of falling (odds ratio (OR), 1.75; 95% confidence interval (CI) [1.33, 2.28]) and falls (OR, 1.29; 95% CI [1.05, 1.58]), especially recurrent falls (OR, 3.53; 95% CI [1.90, 6.57]). Relocation was inversely linked with fear of falling (OR, 0.57; 95% CI [0.34, 0.94]). Social cohesion was protectively associated with fear of falling (OR, 0.82; 95% CI [0.71, 0.95]) and falls (OR, 0.88; 95% CI [0.78, 0.98]) whereas social participation increased the risk of these issues. IADL partially mediated observed associations between disaster damage and fear of falling/falls. Experiences of material damage rather than psychological trauma were associated with falls and fear of falling, and the increased risk of recurrent falls revealed a process of cumulative disadvantage. Findings could inform targeted strategies for protecting older disaster survivors.