Longevity of the Human Spaceflight Program

Abstract

The longevity of the human spaceflight program is important to our survival prospects. On May 27, 1993 I proposed a method for estimating future longevity, based on past observed longevity using the Copernican Principle: if your observation point is not special the 95% confidence level prediction of future longevity is between (1/39)th and 39 times the past longevity. The prediction for the future longevity of the human spaceflight program (then 32 years old) was greater than 10 months but less than 1248 years. We have already passed the lower limit. This Copernican formula has been tested a number of times, correctly predicting, among other things, future longevities of Broadway plays and musicals, and the Conservative Government in the United Kingdom. Recently, a study of future longevities of the 313 world leaders in power on May 27, 1993 has been completed. Assuming none still in office serve past age 100, the success rate of the 95% Copernican Formula is currently 94.55% with only one case (out of 313) left to be decided. The human spaceflight program has not been around long and so there is the danger its future will not be long enough to allow us to colonize off the earth. Policy implications are discussed. A smart plan would be to try to establish a self‐supporting colony on Mars in the next 45 years. This should not require sending any more tons of material into space in the next 45 years than we have in the last 45 years.