LONG WAVES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CAPITALISM?

Abstract

SUMMARY This paper is a survey of the most important contributions to the development of a theory of ‘long waves’ in capitalist development. From the early forerunners of the discussion, via Kondratieff and Schumpeter, to the economists of today, the debate on the long-wave phenomenon is being surveyed and assessed. The result is rather negative. No one has been able to empirically verify the existence of the long waves. Secular wave-like fluctuations in prices and certain related time series have been found - but these are quite compatible with explanations based exclusively on exogenous factors. In physical time series of production or other time series that are not directly correlated with prices, there has been no evidence of long waves. Nor has anyone been able to give a satisfying explanation of why the secular rate of growth or level of economic activity would fluctuate in a self-generating cyclical pattern. Therefore, we must draw the conclusion that those turning-points and successive trend periods which undeniably exist in the development of capitalism cannot be regarded as manifestations of some kind of long wave or cycle; instead, they are specific, historical occurrences, each one characterized by its own specific features. The task of the social scientist is, thus, to study the actual historical dynamics of the economic system - without trying to squeeze it into a general pattern of secular cyclical swings.