Long-term Variation in the Catch of Major Small Pelagic Fishes Related to Winter Warming in the South Sea, Korea

Abstract

The relationships among long-term climatic change in the southern part of the Korean peninsula, oceanic conditions of the South Sea, Korea, and winter catches of major small pelagic fishes were analyzed using 33 years of time-series data from 1971-2003. In the early 1990s, winter climatic conditions in the southern part of the Korean peninsula shifted to a warmer regime with higher air temperature, weaker wind speed, and lower relative humidity. Also, winter sea surface temperature (SST) became consistently higher in the South Sea. The annual catch of major small pelagic fishes in the South Sea increased dramatically in the mid 1990s, whereas the catch of total fishes decreased in the late 1980s. In particular, the winter catch started to increase markedly in the late 1980s, and has remained over 120,000 M/T since the late 1990s. Correlation analysis of the winter catch of major small pelagic fishes and environmental factors showed that catch was correlated with air temperature (r=0.468, P< 0.01), wind speed (r=-0.732, P< 0.01), relative humidity (r=-0.73l, P< 0.01), and SST (r=0.672, P< 0.01). Multiple regression analysis between the winter catch of major small pelagic fishes (Y) and environmental factors (X) resulted in the equation: <TEX>$Y=-0.017-0.217\;X_3-0.486\;X_4+0.325\;X_5(R^2=0.754,\;P<0.000)$</TEX>.