Long-term variability and trends of sea level storminess and extremes in European Seas

Abstract

This paper documents the variability and trends of mean storminess and extreme sea level amplitudes at selected long-term operating tide gauge stations located in the European Seas over different frequency bands, seasons and months. Six stations have been chosen for the analyses–Antalya, Ceuta, Rovinj, Newlyn, Wladyslawowo and Lerwick–which possess at least a half-centurial record of hourly or higher frequency sea level data. The data have been carefully inspected for time shifts and drifts in the record. The analyses included the extraction of sea level amplitudes (envelopes) over four frequency bands: super-diurnal frequencies (0–1 days), small-scale synoptic disturbances (1–3 days), large-scale synoptic disturbances (3–10 days) and planetary-scale disturbances (10–100 days). Interannual variability in sea level amplitudes is occasionally found to coincide with some known variability in the atmosphere. For example, the northern European stations have overall positive sea level storminess and extreme trends, which is opposite from the southern stations, confirming a northward shift in atmosphere storm tracks. Redistribution of sea level amplitudes between different seasons and different frequency bands has been observed at some stations in both variability and trends. The latter may be important for the assessment of a region's total hazard risks and vulnerability, as maximum storminess and extremes may or may not coincide with maximum mean sea level.