Long-Term Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Extreme Events over Kosi River Basin in India

Varsha Pandey,Prashant K Srivastava,Aradhana Yaduvanshi,Wan Zurina Wan Jaafar,George P Petropoulos,Atul Kumar Sahai,Manika Gupta,Rajani Kumar Pradhan,Rajesh Kumar Mall

doi:10.3390/w13121695

Abstract

Analysis of spatial and temporal changes of long-term precipitation and extreme precipitation distribution at a local scale is very important for the prevention and mitigation of water-related disasters. In the present study, we have analyzed the long-term trend of 116 years (1901–2016) of precipitation and distribution of extreme precipitation index over the Kosi River Basin (KRB), which is one of the frequent flooding rivers of India, using the 0.25° × 0.25° resolution gridded precipitation datasets obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), India. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test together with Sen’s slope estimator was employed to determine the trend and the magnitude of the trend of the precipitation time series. The annual and monsoon seasons revealed decreasing trends with Sen’s slope values of −1.88 and −0.408, respectively. For the extreme indices viz. R10 and R20 days, a decreasing trend from the northeastern to the southwest part of the basin can be observed, whereas, in the case of highest one-day precipitation (RX1 day), no clear trend was found. The information provided through this study can be useful for policymakers and may play an important role in flood management, runoff, and understanding related to the hydrological process of the basin. This will contribute to a better understanding of the potential risk of changing rainfall patterns, especially the extreme rainfall events due to climatic variations.

Highlights

As it can be seen from the figure, the monsoon season plays an important role in the total annual precipitation
The maximum mean monthly precipitation was observed for July (343.03 mm) followed by August (294.70 mm) and September
We found a relatively decreasing trend in most of the extreme precipitation indices except for consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD)

Summary

Introduction

Extreme weather events, such as frequent droughts and floods, have profound impacts on both economic and human welfare [1]. The long-term precipitation pattern and trend, especially the extreme events, are prerequisites in the regions where flood often causes major damage to the lives and crops. For this reason, communities need high-quality scientific information on the particular historic rainfall trends for their region, including rainfall extremes, to support adaption to changes in the rainfall that are both relative to current climate variability and future climatic change [2,3,4]

Objectives

Results

Conclusion