LONG-TERM TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY AND THE INCIDENCE OF CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES: A LARGE, REPRESENTATIVE COHORT STUDY IN CHINA

Abstract

Objective: In the context of global climate change, far less is known about the impact of long-term temperature variability (TV), especially in developing countries. The current study was aimed to estimate the effect of long-term TV on cardiovascular disease in China. Design and method: The current study enrolled 23,721 individuals with mean age of 56.15 years in China from 2012–2016 and followed up during 2017 and 2019. TV was defined as the standard deviation of daily temperatures during survey years. The Cox regression was used to estimate the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) between TV and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Results: During the follow-up time, we ascertained 836 cases of incident of CVD. A significant positive trend was observed between CVD risk and increasing levels of TV comparing to the lowest tertile with an HR = 1.343 (95% CI: 1.133–1.591) for the medium tertile and an OR = 1.717(95% CI: 1.347–2.189) for the highest tertile (ptrend < 0.001). The HR per 1°C increase in TV was 1.062 (95% CI:1.014–1.112) for CVD. We also estimated that exposure to high TV would lost 2.11 years disease-free years for population aged 35 to 65 years, and was attributable to 2.93 million CVD cases (or 12.14% cases) in China. Conclusions: Long-term TV was associated with higher risk of incident CVD. Our findings will be valuable for future efforts assessing health risks related to the climate change and developing related policies to reduce TV related adverse health effect.