Long-Term Sustainability of Copper and Iron Based on a System Dynamics Model

Abstract

Copper and iron are critical to the economic growth of modern society. Nations depend on these metals for the development of infrastructure, transportation, and other industries. However, concerns regarding future availability of “peak minerals” with a “limit to growth” have been extensively debated. The purpose of this study was to investigate the amount of potential resources and the recycling rate from secondary metal scrap recycling for the sustainable development of mineral resources. The long-term mineral supply and demand balance with respect to recycling for copper and iron were developed for the next 50 years at the regional and global levels. The results indicate that the supply of copper would increase four-fold by 2070 compared to 1991, with primary copper remaining the main contributing source. For iron, the total supply would increase by nine times from 2000 to 2070, with secondary recycling surpassing the primary iron supply by 2033 and becoming the main contributor by 2070. Even though there is no future resource constraint, further promotion of scrap recycling, especially for copper, is necessary to address environmental concerns through reduction in material extraction. Emphasizing the importance of metals in society is essential for stock accountability through resource efficiency and resource conservation.