Long term surface deformation of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat from GPS geodesy: Inferences from simple elastic inverse models

Abstract

Campaign and continuous GPS geodetic measurements on Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat are reported from 1995 to 2009, spanning three dome growth and repose episodes. Uniform elastic half‐space inversions were used to examine how crustal pressure sources evolved by inverting subsets of all available 3D site data for any given episode using a single Mogi‐source. Changes in network topology were also examined. The average best‐fitting single Mogi model yields X = 0.3 ± 0.5 km, Y = 0.8 ± 0.4 km, and a depth of Z = 10.4 ± 2.1 km (1‐σ, Z positive down), relative to the center of the model domain. The mean Mogi depth for effusive (deflation) versus repose (inflation) is different and significant at >90% confidence, yielding Z = 11.4 ± 2.0 km and 9.3 ± 1.6 km, respectively. A vertical, prolate ellipsoid improves the fit at >95% confidence over a single Mogi source or stacked, two‐source model for the 2003–2005 repose and 2005–2007 dome growth episodes.