Long-term seismic forecast (lTSF) for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc VI 2019–V 2024; properties of precursory seismic activity in I 2017–V 2019. Development and practical application of the LTSF method

Abstract

The paper presents the results of the ongoing work on the method of the long-term seismic forecast (LTSF) for the Kuril-Kamchatka Arc. The method is based on seismic gaps and seismic cycle patterns. The work also reveals the most important trends of the method development over the prior decade. Based on the main methodology the long-term forecast is given for the next 5 years from VI 2019 to V 2024 period, for the most active part of the regions seismogenic zone. The seismic cycle stages are predicted for the next five years, the normalized characteristic of the weak earthquakes (A10) amount, the earthquakes with the medium magnitudes expecting with the 0.8, 0.5 and 0.15 probabilities, the maximum expected magnitudes and the strongest with the M 7.7 earthquakes probabilities for 20 of its zones. The famous works of S.A. Fedotov resulted in further research of the regional seismic processs spatial and temporal features within the 2017 period, including the strongest (M = 7.7) July 17, 2017 Near-Aleutian Earthquake. The results confirm close seismic process relation in the most seismically dangerous, according to the LTSF data zones and major events in the region itself and the adjacent seismic regions, as well as the current very high seismic hazard in some zones of the Kuril-Kamchatka Arc and the need to continue and increase the works being done for earthquake resistance and seismic safety in the most endangered zones and of course in administrative center of Kamchatka the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii city.