Long-term Risk of Pancreatic Malignancy in Patients With Branch Duct Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm in a Referral Center

Abstract

Little is known about the development of branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs). We evaluated long-term outcomes of a large cohort of patients with BD-IPMNs to determine risk of malignancy and define a subset of low-risk BD-IPMNs. We performed a retrospective analysis of data from 577 patients with suspected or presumed BD-IPMN under surveillance at the Massachusetts General Hospital. Patients underwent cross-sectional imaging analysis at 3 months or later after their initial diagnosis. The diagnosis of BD-IPMN was based on the presence of unilocular or multilocular cysts of the pancreas and a non-dilated main pancreatic duct (<5 mm). We collected demographic, clinical, and pathology data. Cysts were characterized at the time of diagnosis and during the follow-up period. Follow-up duration was time between initial cyst diagnosis and date of last visit or death for patients without development of pancreatic cancer, date of surgery for patients with histologically confirmed malignancy, or date of first discovery of malignancy by imaging analysis for patients with unresectable tumors or who underwent neoadjuvant treatment before surgery. The primary outcome was risk of malignancy, with a focus on patients followed for 5 years or more, compared with that of the US population, based on standardized incidence ratio. Of the 577 patients studied, 479 (83%) were asymptomatic at diagnosis and 363 (63%) underwent endoscopic ultrasound at least once. The median follow-up time was 82 months (range, 6-329 months) for the entire study cohort; 363 patients (63%) underwent surveillance for more than 5 years, and 121 (21%) for more than 10 years. Malignancies (high-grade dysplasia or invasive neoplasm) developed after 5 years in 20 of 363 patients (5.5%), and invasive cancer developed in 16 of 363 patients (4.4%). The standardized incidence ratio for patients with BD-IPMNs without worrisome features of malignancy at 5 years was 18.8 (95% confidence interval, 9.7-32.8; P < .001). One hundred and eight patients had cysts ≤1.5 cm for more than 5 years of follow-up; only 1ofthese patients (0.9%) developed a distinct ductal adenocarcinoma. By contrast, among the 255 patients with cysts >1.5 cm, 19 (7.5%) developed malignancy (P= .01). In a retrospective analysis of patients with BD-IPMNs under surveillance, their overall risk of malignancy, almost 8%, lasted for 10 years or more, supporting continued surveillance after 5 years. Cysts that remain ≤1.5 cm for more than 5 years might be considered low-risk for progression to malignancy.