Long-term risk and predictors of cardiovascular death in stable coronary artery disease

Abstract

There is limited knowledge on the residual risk of cardiovascular death (CVD) in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) who receive modern secondary prevention. Our aim was to analyze the causes of death and to determine predictors of CVD in the 5-year CORONOR registry. We studied 4184 consecutive CAD outpatients who were free from any myocardial infarction (MI) or coronary revascularization for more than 1 year at inclusion. Antithrombotics were prescribed in 99%, statins in 92%, inhibitors of renin-angiotensin system in 82%, and β-blockers in 79%; 86% had prior coronary revascularization. Follow-up was performed at 5 years with adjudication of the causes of death. There were 677 deaths during follow-up. The cause of death was cardiovascular in 269 patients (1.3%/year), with 99 deaths from heart failure (HF), 91 sudden deaths, and 65 vascular deaths (stroke, MI, limb or mesenteric ischemia, aortic aneurysm). Predictors of CVD were age [subhazard ratio (SHR)=1.06 (1.04-1.07) per year increase], previous hospitalization for decompensated HF [SHR=3.10 (2.19-4.40)], left ventricular ejection fraction [SHR=0.97 (0.96-0.98) per percentage increase], prior aortic or peripheral intervention [SHR=1.61 (1.12-2.13)], and estimated glomerular filtration rate [SHR=0.99 (0.98-1.00)] per ml/min/1.73m increase]. In analyses stratified on age, prior HF, and left ventricular ejection fraction, the estimated 5-year cardiovascular mortality rates varied from less than 2% to more than 50%. In stable CAD patients widely treated by secondary prevention medications, the main causes of CVD are death from HF and sudden death. The risk of CVD can be predicted by simple baseline variables. New therapeutic strategies are needed for the high-risk patients.