Long-term Projection of Hourly Electricity Demand with Sectoral Decomposition for Developing Economies: Bangladesh Case Study

Abstract

Electricity is one of the cleanest forms of final energy With the growth of economy and industrialization, many of the developing countries face increased demand of energy and electricity In order to meet the growing demand in an economically efficient way, proper prediction of hourly load and appropriate planning is important Bangladesh being one of the developing countries, experienced steady economic growth and increasing electricity demand over the last decade Electricity generation has increased more than twice and share of people having access to electricity reached from 47% in 2009 to 94% in 2019 So far, the household sector is the main contributor in electricity consumption However, as the access to electricity reaches saturation, industry and service sectors would play significant role in coming decades in terms of both electricity consumption amount and pattern In this study, we analyze the projected electricity demand from the year 2020 to 2050 at an interval of 5 years and decompose the total demand into sectoral contribution from household, industry, service and other sectors In addition, the hourly load demand pattern of each sector has been synthesized so that the overall changes in the daily electricity demand pattern for different seasons could be identified