Abstract
The recent IPCC report indicated that the ratio of strong tropical cyclones (TCs) can increase due to climate change, and there is concern that the intensified TCs would increase the risk of storm surges. However, a storm surge is an extreme event with a lower frequency compared to strong winds and heavy precipitation. Thus, it is difficult to estimate storm surge risk under climate change considering future changes in intensity, path, and speed of TCs. This study estimates future changes in the worst class of TCs using the MPI (Maximum Potential Intensity) theory and future changes in the worst class of storm surge height along major bays in Japan using the MPS (Maximum Potential Storm surge height) model.
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