Long-Term Probability Prediction on the Extreme Sea States Induced by Typhoon of the South China Sea

Abstract

The sea state of the South China Sea is influenced by tropical cyclone obviously. It is important to carry out the long-term prediction and probability analysis of typhoon wind, wave height and wave period for the coastal and offshore engineering. In this paper the measured wind and wave data during typhoon processes from 1964-1989 are used to predict the long-term extreme sea states by using Grey Markov Chain Model. And the joint probability analysis of extreme wave height with concomitant wave period and wind speed is performed by using Multivariate Compound Extreme Distribution model which involves typhoon occurrence frequency and corresponding joint probability distribution of typhoon induced extreme sea environmental events. The proposed model shows that the mean value of typhoon occurring frequency per year plays the significant role in long term prediction of typhoon induced joint return values of extreme sea events.