Abstract
Due to climate change impacts on atmospheric circulation, global and regional wave climate in many coastal regions around the world might change. Any changes in wave parameters could result in significant changes in wave energy flux, the patterns of coastal sediment transport, and coastal evolution. Although some studies have tried to address the potential impacts of climate change on longshore sediment transport (LST) patterns, they did not sufficiently consider the uncertainties arising from different sources in the projections. In this study, the uncertainty associated with the choice of model used for the estimation of LST is examined. The models were applied to a short stretch of coastline located in Northern Gold Coast, Australia, where a huge volume of sediment is transported along the coast annually. The ensemble of results shows that the future mean annual and monthly LST rate might decrease by about 11 percent, compared to the baseline period. The results also show that uncertainty associated with LST estimation is significant. Hence, it is proposed that this uncertainty, in addition to that from other sources, should be considered to quantify the contribution of each source in total uncertainty. In this way, a probabilistic-based framework can be developed to provide more meaningful output applicable to long-term coastal planningRecorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/3CGU9RcGYjE
Highlights
Due to climate change impacts on atmospheric circulation, global and regional wave climate in many coastal regions around the world might change
The rotation of waves direction toward the southeast, from May to August, is recognizable (Figure 3, right panel). This pattern was observed in MRI-CGCM3-driven waves for the baseline period 1979-2005
Projected future wave climate of MRI-CGCM-driven waves indicates ~ 5% decrease in mean significant wave height (Figure 4), and 2% decrease in mean peak wave period compared to the baseline period
Summary
Due to climate change impacts on atmospheric circulation, global and regional wave climate in many coastal regions around the world might change. Some studies have tried to address the potential impacts of climate change on longshore sediment transport (LST) patterns, they did not sufficiently consider the uncertainties arising from different sources in the projections. Estimates of LST can be obtained from field measurements or sediment transport models (e.g., empirical formulas, numerical models). Any estimation in these time scales should account for potential climate change (hereafter CC) impacts on coastal sediment transport patterns and associated uncertainties (Ranasinghe, 2016). In this regard, a modeling framework is required to be calibrated against field measurements for a baseline period. Uncertainty in projection of offshore wave forcing conditions: Intra and inter-model uncertainty (e.g., different settings of the models, different wave models)
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