Long-term prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma using serum autotaxin levels after antiviral therapy for hepatitis C

Abstract

Introduction and objectivesContinuous monitoring for hepatocellular carcinoma is necessary following treatment with direct-acting antivirals in patients with hepatitis C virus infection. We investigated whether the long-term follow-up of serum autotaxin levels could predict the development of hepatocellular carcinoma. Patients and MethodsThis prospective observational study enrolled adult patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection who presented to the study center from January 2016 to March 2021. Among the patients who achieved a sustained viral response, the relationship between the development of hepatocellular carcinoma and serum autotaxin levels was assessed before treatment with direct-acting antivirals; at the end of therapy; at 12 and 24 weeks; and at 12, 24, 36, and 48 months after treatment. ResultsData were analyzed for 139 patients. Thirteen patients developed hepatocellular carcinoma 48 months after treatment. The cut-off serum autotaxin values that predicted hepatocellular carcinoma after 24 weeks were 1.22 (men) and 1.92 (women) mg/L. The area under the curve for serum autotaxin was 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI]:0.71–0.95) in men and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.82–0.99) in women. The positive predictive value of serum autotaxin was 0.208 (95% CI: 0.139–0.248), and the negative predictive value was 0.971 (95% CI: 0.939–0.990). The cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma was significantly higher when serum autotaxin levels were above the cut-off value after 24 weeks (p < 0.0001). ConclusionsSerum autotaxin is a candidate biomarker for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma during the long-term follow-up of patients with a sustained viral response following treatment with direct-acting antivirals.