LONG-TERM PREDICTION OF CASPIAN SEA LEVEL UNDER CMIP6 SCENARIOS USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

S Mahya Hoseini,Mohsen Soltanpour

doi:10.9753/icce.v36v.papers.5

Abstract

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is employed to predict the long-term Caspian Sea level (CSL). 114-year observed CSL data (1900-2014) and the precipitation and temperature of historical and future scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6) are used to predict the future fluctuations of CSL (2015-2050). The values of the statistical indices in training, validating and testing periods (1900-2014) indicate the efficiency of the ANN in reconstruction of the CSL. Considering the outputs of different climate change projections (CMIP6) and excluding the human interventions, the study predicts the CSL fluctuation range of -28 m to -26m until 2050.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/Kfj-gr65TR8

Highlights

The Caspian Sea (CS) is the world’s largest inland water
It might be related to the overall performance of Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6) models that differs across different climatic zones (Yazdandoost et al, 2020)
It is observed that considering the outputs of different climate change projections (CMIP6), Caspian Sea level (CSL) will probably fluctuate between -28 m and -26 m until 2050

Summary

INTRODUCTION

The Caspian Sea (CS) is the world’s largest inland water. CS locates in a semi-arid area between latitudes 36°-47°N and longitudes 47°-54°E. CSL was gradually decreasing with the present value of about -27.8 m This fall of water level has resulted in different kinds of problems, such as navigability at ports. The overwhelming majority of scientists who studied the cause of CSL fluctuations' state that the CSL is controlled by climate-induced changes of the sea's water budget. They reported that tectonic factors have a very insignificant effect on CSL fluctuations; inversely, climatic components are of primary importance in CSL variations (Berg, 1934; Kalinin, 1968; Varuschenko et al, 1978; Golitsyn and Panin, 1989; Panin and Divakov, 1991) during the 20th century, anthropogenic activities such as land-use changes and reservoir improvements influenced the CSL (Renssen et al, 2007). Considering the insignificant role of groundwater influx/outflux in CSL fluctuations (Nazarali et al, 2016), the annual variation of CSL can be formulated by Eq 1: L

QVo lg a ACS

RESULTS

Result