Long-term planning of wind and solar power considering the technology readiness level under China's decarbonization strategy

Abstract

To address climate change, the Chinese government has committed to achieving carbon peaking by 2030. Projecting the wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity is essential for China's low carbon transition as these renewables have been widely recognized as the major energy sources in future. This study proposes a long-term strategic planning approach for wind power and photovoltaic by simulating multiple policies and market scenarios for the national-level energy transitions and incorporating the feedback effects of market development on technology readiness level. The proposed approach simulates the national energy consumption and energy mix under various transition scenarios based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). The dynamics of market development, technology readiness level, and future renewable costs are further incorporated into a nonlinear optimization model to generate economically optimal planning solutions for wind power and photovoltaic under different policy and market scenarios. Valuable insights are obtained from three perspectives, i.e., (1) the economic and emission reduction co-benefits under different scenarios, (2) the evolution of the Levelized Cost of Energy, and (3) the impact on the transition of power sector. In particular, the simulation and optimization results reveal that appropriate acceleration of wind power and photovoltaic development can promote technology readiness level, reduce overall transition costs, and effectively reduce the peak value of emissions. The maximum peak reduction in carbon dioxide emissions is 16.06%, and the maximum cumulative reduction in carbon dioxide emissions is 14.54%. The total project cost can be reduced by a maximum of 3.23%. Thus, more active supporting policies for renewables can further enhance long-term economic and environmental co-benefits under current conditions.