Long-term payoffs of near-term low-carbon deployment policies

Abstract

Recent climate change negotiations indicate that near-term policies to address climate change are likely to vary across countries with countries employing a range of different policy options. One option frequently mooted at the national level is to promote, via policy, the deployment of low-carbon technologies. Promoting the deployment of low-carbon technologies can involve a near-term cost, if such technologies are more expensive overall, or require more upfront capital, than emitting alternatives. However, it lowers future costs of emissions abatement by reducing emissions in the near-term and potentially accelerating rates of improvement in targeted low-carbon technologies. We derive a globally cost-effective, near-term international technology investment strategy to achieve a long-term climate goal and show that it employs a diversified international technology investment portfolio across countries. We also explore the degree to which independent national technology deployment policies align with collaboratively determined regimes. We show that conditions exist under which there are substantial gains to international cooperation in the deployment of diverse low-carbon technologies and also circumstances in which domestic outcomes align with the global outcome.