Long Term Outcome Prediction in Stemi/Nstemi Patients By Means of the Model Consisting of Simple Clinical Parameters

Abstract

Aim: Our study aimed to identify the clinical variables associated with long-term mortality after MI and to construct a simple, easy to use clinical practice model for the prediction of 5 year mortality after MI. Material and Methods: This is a prospective 5-year observation study of MI patients admitted to the Department of Cardiology at the Copernicus Memorial Hospital in Lodz in 2010 and 2011. The data were collected during hospitalization and again after a period of 1 and 5 years. A multi-factor multi-level Cox regression model was constructed to investigate the impact of clinical factors on long-term survival.results: 92 patients (39 STEMI, 53 NSTEMI) were included in the study and their data were used to construct a Cox regression model with satisfactory fit (R 2 =0.7945). Factors associated with a decrease in 5-year risk are: age (1.06, 95%CI: 1.01-1.11), SYNTAX score (1.05, 95%CI: 1.02-1.08), WBC level (1.16, 95%CI: 1.08-1.26), and glycemia at enrollment (1.01, 95%CI: 1.01-1.01). Higher values of HDL at enrollment were associated with a decrease in 5-year risk (HR=0.97, 95%CI: 0.93-0.99).conclusion: The model we created is a valuable tool that is useful and easy to employ in everyday practice for assessing the 5-year prognosis of patients after MI. What is new: The study presents the new model for prediction of 5-year mortality after myocardial infarction. This model is based on simple clinical parameters and may by applied in everyday practice.