Long-Term Monitoring of Trends in Xerothermality and Vegetation Condition of a Northeast Mediterranean Island Using Meteorological and Remote Sensing Data

Abstract

There is no doubt that global climate change is happening and affecting life on Earth in a variety of ways. It can be seen on the extreme events of natural disasters, prolonged periods of drought, and increased summer and annual temperatures. While climate change affects every place on Earth, the Mediterranean region is considered a hot spot of climate change. Temperature is expected to increase further, precipitation, especially during summer months, is expected to decrease, and extreme rainfall events are projected to increase. These projected changes will affect both continental and insular environments, with small islands being particularly vulnerable due to the lack of space for species to move into more favorable conditions. As a result, these environments need to be studied, the changes quantified, and the consequences monitored. The current study focuses on the island of Fournoi in the central eastern part of the Aegean Sea. We employed data from a local meteorological station, which operates for a limited period, the Climate Research Unit TS data, and remote sensing thermal data to monitor the trends in aridity over a period of almost 40 years. The results show that summer temperature has increased significantly over the last 40 years, and this is confirmed by both meteorological and remote sensing data. At the same time, precipitation seems to remain stable. Despite the increased aridity imposed by the increased temperature and stable precipitation, vegetation seems not to be experiencing extreme stress. On the contrary, it seems to be following a positive trend over the study period. This observation is explained by the extreme resilience of the plant species of the study area and the fact that vegetation has been recovering over the last 50 years after a period of human overexploitation, and this recovery overcomes the stress imposed by increased aridity.