Long-Term Load Forecasting Based on a Time-Variant Ratio Multiobjective Optimization Fuzzy Time Series Model

Abstract

Load forecasting problem is a complex nonlinear problem linked with economic and weather factors. Long-term load forecasting provides useful information for maintenance scheduling, adequacy assessment, and limited energy resources for electrical power systems. Fuzzy time series forecasting models can be used for long-term load forecasting. However, the interval length has been chosen arbitrarily in the implementations of known fuzzy time series forecasting models, which has an important impact on the performance of these models. In this paper, a time-variant ratio multiobjective optimization fuzzy time series model (TV-RMOP) is proposed, and its performance is tested on the prediction of enrollment at the University of Alabama. Results clearly promote the forecasting accuracy as compared to the conventional models. A genetic algorithm is used to search for the length of intervals based on the training data while Pareto optimality theory provides the necessary conditions to identify an optimal one. The TV-RMOP model is applied for the long-term load forecasting in Shanghai of China.