Long-term kidney transplant graft survival—Making progress when most needed

Abstract

Current short-term kidney post-transplant survival rates are excellent, but longer-term outcomes have historically been unchanged. This study used data from the national Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) and evaluated 1-year and 5-year graft survival and half-lives for kidney transplant recipients in the US. All adult (≥18years) solitary kidney transplants (n=331,216) from 1995 to 2017 were included in the analysis. Mean age was 49.4years (SD +/-13.7), 60% male, and 25% Black. The overall (deceased and living donor) adjusted hazard of graft failure steadily decreased from 0.89 (95%CI: 0.88, 0.91) in era 2000-2004 to 0.46 (95%CI: 0.45, 0.47) for era 2014-2017 (1995-1999 as reference). Improvements in adjusted hazards of graft failure were more favorable for Blacks, diabetics and older recipients. Median survival for deceased donor transplants increased from 8.2years in era 1995-1999 to an estimated 11.7years in the most recent era. Living kidney donor transplant median survival increased from 12.1years in 1995-1999 to an estimated 19.2years for transplants in 2014-2017. In conclusion, these data show continuous improvement in long-term outcomes with more notable improvement among higher-risk subgroups, suggesting a narrowing in the gap for those disadvantaged after transplantation.