Abstract
The Kyiv city is the capital of Ukraine, as well as its major administrative and industrial center. Kyiv is located in the middle reaches of the Dnipro River which is the largest river in Ukraine. In the past, the Kyiv city suffered from dangerous spring floods. Consequently, long-term forecasting of spring floods on the Dnipro River near Kyiv has an important scientific and practical significance. Existing quantitative methods for such forecasting are of limited forecast lead time and require many input hydrometeorological data. In the paper the information method Weng Wen-Bo applied, which is a qualitative forecasting method. The use such method allows to determine the periods and specific years in which the following extraordinary spring floods on the Dnipro River near Kyiv can occur.
Highlights
Long-term hydrological forecasts of spring flood are necessary for efficient management of water resources and hydrotechnical structures, mitigation and decrease of the territories’ flooding consequences during extraordinary floods
Applying equation (3), we calculated the commensurability values of ten extreme spring floods, which were observed on the Dnipro near Kyiv during the period from 1789 to 1970 (Table 1)
The value of commensurability (ΔX) is 6.70 years, the value of K is varying in the range 1–8, and the forecast error is ± 2 years
Summary
Long-term hydrological forecasts of spring flood are necessary for efficient management of water resources and hydrotechnical structures, mitigation and decrease of the territories’ flooding consequences during extraordinary floods. Hydrological forecasting uses two main approaches: statistical and. Methods of long-term forecasting are divided into quantitative and qualitative (Peng et al, 2017). The quantitative methods can be called the traditional methods, which are usually used for forecasting. They use statistical methods, correlation and regression analysis, etc. In 1984, the Chinese scientist Weng Wen-Bo proposed a method of long-term forecasting, which was called the information method. This method uses the dates in which the values of extreme natural phenomena were observed (Weng, 1984). Method Weng Wen-Bo is characterised by calculation simplicity, graphical visualisation and the use of the researcher intuition
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