Abstract
The rapidly increasing population growth and expansion of urban development are undoubtedly two of the main reasons for increasing global energy consumption. Accurate long-term forecasting of peak load is essential for saving time and money for countries’ power generation utilities. This paper introduces the first investigation into the performance of the Prophet model in the long-term peak load forecasting of Kuwait. The Prophet model is compared with the well-established Holt–Winters model to assess its feasibility and accuracy in forecasting long-term peak loads. Real data of electric load peaks from Kuwait powerplants from 2010 to 2020 were used for the electric load peaks, forecasting the peak load between 2020 and 2030. The Prophet model has shown more accurate predictions than the Holt–Winters model in five statistical performance metrics. Besides, the robustness of the two models was investigated by adding Gaussian white noise of different intensities. The Prophet model has proven to be more robust to noise than the Holt–Winters model. Furthermore, the generalizability test of the two models has shown that the Prophet model outperforms the Holt–Winters model. The reported results suggest that the forecasted maximum peak load is expected to reach 18,550 and 19,588 MW for the Prophet and Holt–Winters models by 2030 in Kuwait. The study suggests that the best months for scheduling the preventive maintenance for the year 2020 and 2021 are from November 2020 until March 2021 for both models.
Highlights
Electricity power is an essential part of today’s life, and it is the backbone of modern civilization [1].The generation of power for daily life is crucial in every country
Accurate forecasting assures an efficient capacity planning for the growing population and increasing demand for electricity that avoids over or underestimating of utility expansion plans
This study aims to contribute to the literature by investigating long-term maximum peak load forecasting performance of Kuwait peak loads using the Prophet method based on comparative quantitative analysis with the Holt–Winters forecasting method
Summary
Electricity power is an essential part of today’s life, and it is the backbone of modern civilization [1]. The generation of power for daily life is crucial in every country. Different challenges worldwide in economics, environment, and growing populations require electrical systems that operate efficiently and continually all around the year. Energy forecasting provides vital information for generating capacity, control and planning, system management, distribution, and maintenance scheduling. Accurate forecasting assures an efficient capacity planning for the growing population and increasing demand for electricity that avoids over or underestimating of utility expansion plans. It would allow proper and data-driven economic and environmental management and planning
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