Abstract
A technique of long-term forecasting of outliers of a random runoff process in the low-water period in case of possible climate change is proposed. A stochastic model of runoff formation based on the Fokker-Plank-Kolmogorov equation (FPK) was used to estimate hydrological implications of climate change. The frequency and duration of a 30-day runoff below 80% probability were considered as principal characteristics of the forecast. They substantially influence the development of the strategy of water resources management in perspective and can be used for an environmental estimate of implications of changes in the hydrological regime in low-water periods. The forecast results are generalized in the form of maps.
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