Long-term forecast of flow dynamics of Chirchik basin

Abstract

Global climate change is undoubtedly one of the main threats to the world community among existing environmental problems. This problem has a particularly severe impact on water resources. Changes in hydrological processes or flows in river basins directly or indirectly affect the dynamics of changes in gross domestic product (GDP) in this region. Chirchik basin provides about 16% of GDP of the republic, and more than 70% of water resources are used for irrigation of crops [1-5]. For this reason, any factors affecting hydrological processes and flow dynamics in the river basin, especially climate change, immediately affect all aspects of life in the region, including the social level of society and economic stability. Assessing the impact of climate differences on river basin flow dynamics is important for ensuring sustainable agricultural productivity for river basins in the future, as well as reducing the ecological and environmental impacts of climate change. This situation calls for urgent and concerted action in several areas: technology, infrastructure, politics, economy, ecology and environmental protection. The article assessed the impact of changes in precipitation intensity on stream dynamics based on the Global Circulation Model (GCM) coordination scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the years 2030, 2050 and 2070 using the delta approach method. The results of the study provided strong evidence for changes in stream dynamics in the Chirchik basin for the near and far future.