Long-Term Forecast of Conditions of the Thermal Regime for Territory of Volga Federal District

Abstract

The physical basis of the long-term asynchronous link between the thermal regime of the North Atlantic in August (March) and the conditions of the thermal regime in the Volga Federal District in next January (July) is discussed. Methodology and results of testing of possibility of use of the informative properties of the fi elds of temperature anomalies of the ocean surface for long-term forecasting of the thermal regime in the district are presented. Comparative data on the effectiveness of methods of “secondary standards” and non-parametric discriminant analysis used in experimental forecasts are contained.