Long-Term Fiscal Projections: Assessing Sustainability in the United Kingdom

Abstract

Stephen Miners enriches the set of variables affecting fiscal sustainability by considering not only demographic trends but also factors such as medical technology and nuclear decommissioning. He focuses on the UK budget and compares the results obtained with long-term projections produced in the framework of the Code for Fiscal Conduct with those obtained with generational accounting exercises and with other estimates carried out for the UK by international organisations. Despite the different approaches and assumptions, all studies seem to agree that the UK is not facing significant long-term sustainability problems. While the UK is in a stronger position than most countries with respect to demographic trends, the author argues that the positive results of sustainability tests for the UK also reflect the recent implementation of measures designed to control the risks of unsustainable demand for social security and health spending.