Long-term evidence on induced traffic: A case study on the relationship between road traffic and capacity of Budapest bridges

Abstract

Reducing urban road congestion by infrastructure development promises lower travel times, reduced pollution and wider economic benefits. However, besides advanced transport infrastructure affecting existing traffic, it also induces new demand, which tends to be underestimated. This phenomenon is well-known for interurban roads, especially for motorways, but the literature is scarce on real-life data for urban areas. Most analyses on induced traffic were carried out on relatively short time periods. Therefore, this paper studies 55 years in an urban environment and shows how capacity provision induced extra traffic. Furthermore, it could also be demonstrated that scaling back capacity diminishes travel demand. Most of the analyses on induced traffic concentrated on just a handful of countries; therefore, evidence from a country that emerged from middle income to high income provides new insights for other developing nations and cities.