LONG‐TERM EQUILIBRIUM PHOSPHORUS CONCENTRATIONS IN THE EVERGLADES AS PREDICTED BY A VOLLENWEIDER‐TYPE MODEL1

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Anthropogenic phosphorus loading, mainly from the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA), is believed to be the primary cause of eutrophication in the Everglades. The state of Florida has adopted a plan for addressing Everglades eutrophication problems by reducing anthropogenic phosphorus loads through the implementation of Best Management Practices (BMPs) in agricultural watersheds and the construction of stormwater treatment areas (STAs). Optimizing the effectiveness of these STAs for reducing phosphorus concentrations from agricultural runoff is a critical component of the District's comprehensive Everglades protection effort. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a simple tool that can be used to estimate STAs’performance and evaluate management alternatives considered in the Everglades restoration efforts. The model was tested at two south Florida wetland sites and then was used to simulate several management alternatives and predict ecosystem responses to reduced external phosphorus (P) loadings. Good agreement between model predictions at the two wetland sites and actual observations indicated that the model can be used as a management tool to predict wetlands’response to reductions in external phosphorus load and long‐term P levels in aquatic ecosystems. Model results showed that lowering P content of the Everglades Protection Area (EPA) depends on reducing P loads originating from EAA discharges, not from rainfall. Assuming no action is taken (e.g., no BMPs or STAs implemented), the steady state model predicted that the average concentration within the modeled area of the marsh would reach 20 μg L−1 within five years. With an 85 percent reduction in P loading, the steady‐state model predicted that Water Conservation Area 2A (WCA‐2A) P concentration will equilibrate at approximately 10 μ L−1, while elimination of all loadings is projected to further reduce marsh P to values less than 10 μg L−1.