LONG-TERM ENERGY DEMAND THROUGH BOTTOM-UP ANALYSIS AND PROJECTION FOR KUWAIT

Abstract

In this study, an energy demand projection and analysis were conducted for the State of Kuwait, which has an oil-based economy. A bottom-up approach was used to conduct energy demand projection and analysis by utilizing the Model for Energy Demand Analysis (MAED), which is a software package developed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The energy demand projection was conducted until 2050, with 2019 as the base year. The total demand is expected to grow from 210.9 TWh in 2019 to 373.07 TWh in 2050. The industrial sector dominates final energy demand, with a percentage of 45.1% in 2019 and is expected to reach 55.8% by 2050. Reliance on fossil fuels for energy demand will persist with an annual growth rate of 4% throughout the projection period. The electricity demand in the household and service sectors has the highest share of space cooling during the long summer months. Policy implications in response to energy demand consumption patterns are discussed to achieve national sustainable economic growth and environmental requirements. The implementation of rules and regulations to deploy and use equipment and machinery with high energy efficiency ratings will assist in energy savings in the industrial sector. Providing incentives to use building materials with high insulation can significantly reduce the energy demand for space cooling. Setting high-efficiency rating standards for engine specifications for vehicles imported to Kuwait will help reduce the consumption of motor fuels in the transportation sector.