Long-term effects of weather condition and air pollution on acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in China: A nationalwide surveillance study in China

Abstract

BackgroundGlobal climate change could have potential impact on enterovirus (EV)-induced infectious diseases. However, the environmental factors promoting acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) circulation remain inconclusive. This study aimed to quantify the relationship between the environment and AHC. MethodsWe retrieved the monthly counts and incidence of AHC, meteorological variables and air quality in mainland China between 2013 and 2018. Exposure risks were evaluated by multivariate distributed lag nonlinear models. ResultsA total of 219,599 AHC cases were reported in 31 provinces of China, predominantly in southern and central China, seasonally increased in summer. AHC incidence increased by 7% between 2013 and 2018, from 2.6873 to 2.7570 per 100,000 people. A moderate positive correlation was seen between AHC and monthly mean temperature, relative humidity (RH) and precipitation. Each unit increment was associated with a relative risk for AHC of 1.058 at 17°-32 °C at lag 0 months, 1.017 at 65–71% RH at lag 1.4 months, and 1.039 at 400–569 mm at lag 2.4 months. By contrast, a negative correlation was seen between monthly ambient NO2 and AHC. ConclusionLong-term exposure to higher mean temperature, RH and precipitation were associated with an increased risk of AHC. The general public, especially susceptible populations, should pay close attention to weather changes and take protective measures in advance to any AHC outbreak as the above situations occur.