Long-term effects of the German zero tolerance law for novice drivers

Abstract

IntroductionIn 2007, the German legislature introduced a zero tolerance law (ZTL) for novice drivers to reduce the number of alcohol-related crashes. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the long-term effects of this law on current and former novice drivers.Method: Our approach was threefold: first, we used individual data of police records from 2003-2018 and conducted a cohort analysis to examine how the first cohort affected by the law responded in the long-term. Second, we analyzed the influence of the ZTL on alcohol-related traffic offenses by current novice drivers. Third, we conducted a survey to examine if the acceptance, knowledge, and behavior regarding the ZTL have changed compared to a decade ago.Results: The number of alcohol-related crashes was significantly lower in the first affected cohort than in earlier cohorts. Moreover, current novice drivers had lower levels of alcohol-related crashes and alcohol-related traffic offenses than did novice drivers before the ZTL became effective. The survey showed a high level of acceptance and knowledge in both current and first cohort and a decreased importance of drinking and driving.Conclusion: The ZTL is associated with a long-term increase of traffic safety in Germany. Former novice drivers appear to have retained learned behavior toward drinking and driving. Thus, the ZTL might have an impact on perceived norms resulting in less acceptance of drinking and driving. Changes in society, like lower alcohol consumption and decreased importance of passenger cars among young people, further accelerated these effects.Practical applications: ZTL for novice drivers are an effective way to improve traffic safety. It is associated with a positive effect on traffic safety even when drivers were no longer directly affected by the measure. These findings suggest that policies are an effective tool to improve traffic safety and help towards achieving Vision Zero.