Abstract
Long‐term ecological data can be an effective tool to help ecologists integrate future projections with historical contexts and provide unique insights into the long‐term dynamics of endangered species. However, hampered by data limitations, including incomplete and spatially biased data, relatively few studies have used multidecadal datasets or have examined changes in biogeography from a historical perspective. The black‐billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) is a large capercaillie (classified as Least Concern [LC] on the IUCN red list) that has undergone a dramatic decline in population during the late 20th century and is considered endangered. Its conservation status is pessimistic, and the species requires immediate protection. Therefore, we supplemented a historical dataset to identify changes in this bird's range and population in northeast China over the long term. The study area spanned Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, and the northeast corner of Inner Mongolia in northeast China. We integrated an ecological niche model (BIOMOD2) with long‐term ecological data on this species to estimate the magnitude of change in distribution over time. Our results revealed a 35.25% reduction in the current distribution of this species compared to their potential distribution in the 1970s. This decline is expected to continue under climate change. For example, the future range loss was estimated to be 38.79 ± 0.22% (8.64–90.19%), and the actual state could be worse, because the baseline range of the model was greater than the real range in the 2000s, showing a 12.39% overestimation. To overcome this poor outlook, a conservation strategy should be established in sensitive areas, including the southwestern Greater Khingan Mountains and northern Lesser Khingan Mountains. Actions that should be considered include field investigations, establishing a monitor network, designing ecological corridors, and cooperating with local inhabitants, governments, and conservation biologists to improve the conservation of the black‐billed capercaillie.
Highlights
Knowledge of the ecological geographical characteristics for a species is the foundation to its biological conservation (Guisan et al, 2013; Valladares et al, 2014)
Our investigation supports the use of long-term ecological data to understand the dynamics of species responses to human pressures and climate change
The analyses controlled or tested for multiple issues affecting data quality, resolution, incompleteness, and biases that have not been addressed in previous studies, including the creation of a long-t erm ecological dataset of the black-billed capercaillie from multiple cross-checked resources, construction of spatiotemporal geographical changes with species distribution models, and integration of changes in the near future with a historical context
Summary
Knowledge of the ecological geographical characteristics for a species is the foundation to its biological conservation (Guisan et al, 2013; Valladares et al, 2014). We integrated ENM’s with long-term ecological records of black-billed capercaillie to estimate the magnitude of changes in their distribution over time. To this goal, we cross-checked datasets from previous research and added new records collected from multiple resources (e.g., gazetteers and journal articles); reconstructed climate data to represent environmental variables, including historical climate data and general circulation models (GCMs); estimated the potential habitat for each period using BIOMOD2; and evaluated changes in the distribution range and possible impact factors. Our results offer an understanding of the ecological and biogeographic characteristics of the black-billed capercaillie population decline over a long period of time, which can be used to improve the power of conservation management for the species and other species in similar ecologic niches
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