Long-term dynamics of the climatic factors of the natural hazards formation in the Northern Caucasus

Abstract

Within the framework of the study on the North Caucasus territory exposure to hazardous natural processes, attention is paid to the climatic factor of their formation. This paper presents the results on the study of the main climatic characteristics dynamics in the mountainous regions of the North Caucasus in different phases of river runoff formation. The dynamics of the surface air temperature and precipitation from the middle of the last century to the present has been studied. The possible influence of reliable changes in monthly, seasonal and annual climate characteristics on changes in the frequency of floods and mudflows in the region is analyzed. The largest number of statistically significant positive trends of air temperature and precipitation in the region was found during the season of mudflow and flood activity.