Long-term dynamics of nitrogen flow in a typical agricultural and pastoral region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its optimization strategy

Abstract

Nitrogen (N) plays a central role in livestock development and food production in agricultural and pastoral regions, while its flow and loss can affect environmental quality, biodiversity and human health. A comprehensive understanding of the sources, patterns and drivers of N flow helps to alleviate its negative effects and promote sustainable management. We developed a county-scale N flow model to quantitatively analyze the N use efficiency (NUE), N losses and their driving forces in the food production and consumption system (FCPS) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). More sustainable N utilization was further investigated through scenario analyses. Our results revealed that N fluxes doubled from 1998 to 2018 to maintain the growing demands for human food production and consumption in Ledu County, which was related to the increasing N losses to the atmosphere and water environment. The surging N fluxes greatly changed the N distribution pattern, resulting in a relatively low NUE (mean value: 29.41%) in the crop-production subsystem (CPS) and a relatively high NUE (mean value: 23.50%) in the livestock-breeding subsystem (LBS). The CPS contributed the most to the N losses. The urban population, animal-derived consumption, crop planting structure, imported fodder and N fertilizer application level were closely associated with N losses. The scenario analysis indicated that combined reasonable changes in planting structure, precision animal feeding, fertilizer management, diets and conversion of cropland into pasture could reduce N losses in 2030 to 5%–61% of Business as usual level. Our results highlighted the strong anthropogenic impact on the N flow of food production and consumption and suggested a sustainable N flow management strategy to harmonize the relationship between N flow and anthropogenically driven factors on the QTP.