Long-term climate change and anthropogenic activities together with regional water resources and agricultural productivity in Uganda using Google Earth Engine

Abstract

Uganda with its fragile ecosystem, large-scale human activities, and increasing population pressure, all of which combined, make this region increasingly susceptible to climate variation. This study examined the long-term trends of annual, seasonal, and monthly distributions of rainfall and temperature from 2001 to 2021 together with crop-wise agricultural productivity. For the analysis, we obtained CHIRPS-V2.0 (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data version 2.0) rainfall, Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Land Surface Temperature (LST), DMSP nighttime lights, ESA land cover attribution, and international crop production assessment records. Subsequently, several non-parametric statistical applications were applied to check the long-term spatio-temporal trends of climate parameters and their inter-relationship at higher significance using the Google Earth Engine platform. The investigation reveals an annual increase in LST, averaging 0.01 °C/year along with decreasing rainfall (1.89 mm/year). However, regional climate trends are largely elevation-dependent, which are predominantly subjected to the northern part of the study area witnessing a slight decrease in LST and thereby increased rainfall. Moreover, the long-term spatial nexus estimation divulges a potent inverse association between rainfall and temperature in the north and northeastern regions of the study area. Concurrently, changing patterns also have led to a decline in crop production and deterioration in water availability, which is accompanied by various other abnormalities, including the scarcity of water resources and anthropogenic activities. Changing climate has had significant implications on crop production, largely on corn and soybean as long-term shifts influence it in average rainfall and temperature, yearly fluctuations, and disturbances during various growth stages.