Long-Term Changes in the Permafrost Temperature and Surface Frost Number in Northeast China

Abstract

The permafrost in Northeast China is experiencing rapid degradation due to the influence of climate change and human activities, profoundly impacting the local ecological environment and engineering construction. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of long-term permafrost in this region is crucial; however, systematic research on this topic remains scarce. This study combines meteorological station data, MODIS land surface temperature (LST) datasets, and borehole locations to apply the surface frost number (SFn) model. This approach enables the simulation and estimation of the spatial distribution and changes in the area of the surface frost number without vegetation effects (SFnv) and permafrost temperature (PT) in Northeast China from 1971 to 2020. The area of the SFnv > 0.49 within the permafrost region decreased substantially from approximately 44.353 × 104 km2 to 19.909 × 104 km2 between 1971 and 2020, with a notable change in 1988. The area of permafrost calculated using PT < 0 was slightly smaller, declining from 39.388 × 104 km2 to 29.852 × 104 km2. There was also a significant increase in the area with PT ranging from −1 °C to 0 °C, indicating a decline in permafrost stability. Approximately 10.926 × 104 km2 of stable permafrost has been transformed into semi-stable and unstable permafrost. Moreover, from 1982 to 2020, the NDVI was negatively correlated with the area of stable permafrost and positively correlated with the area of transitional or unstable permafrost. Vegetation cover decreased as transitional or unstable permafrost degraded. These findings provide valuable information for permafrost research and engineering development in cold regions, as well as for future planning and adaptation strategies.