Long-term Cereal Price Changes: How Important is the Speculative Element?

Abstract

The objective of this article is to provide an analysis of the relationship existing between cereal prices and several variables (population, income, exports, the exchange rate, and speculation), by using a linear regression analysis. Specific emphasis is placed on the speculative dimension. Our results show that speculation has played a crucial role during the period June 2001–December 2009. Exports, in some ways connected to the former variable, occupy second place, in terms of significance. However, their impact on cereal prices is less relevant than that of biofuel production. Population growth acts in the opposite direction due to the change in diets, implying that population increases would tend to affect primarily other agricultural markets. Excessive volatility in food prices is a dramatic question. From a demand point of view, consumers in developing countries and vulnerable income groups in other countries (farmers) have to be protected. More than one policy has to be introduced.