Long-term Baseline Ozone Changes in the Western US: A Synthesis of Analyses

Abstract

Quantification of the magnitude and long-term changes of ozone concentrations transported into the US is important for effective air quality policy development. We synthesize multiple published trend analyses of western US baseline ozone, and show that all results are consistent with an overall, non-linear change – a rapid increase (~5 ppb/decade) during the 1980s that slowed in the 1990s, maximized in the mid-2000s, and was followed by a slow decrease (~1 ppb/decade) thereafter. This non-linear change accounts for ~2/3 of the variance in 28 published linear trend analyses; we attribute the other 1/3 of the variance to unquantified autocorrelation in the analyzed data sets that result primarily from meteorologically-driven interannual ozone variability. Recent systematic changes in baseline ozone at the US West Coast have been relatively small - the standard deviation of the 2-year means over the 1990-2017 period is 1.5 ppb. International efforts to reduce anthropogenic precursor emissions from all northern mid-latitude sources could possibly reduce baseline ozone concentrations, thereby improving US ozone air quality. Implications Statement Ozone is an air pollutant with significant human and ecological health impacts. Air masses transported into the western US from over the Pacific Ocean carry ozone concentrations that are, on average, a large fraction of the US health standard. The US EPA policy assessment conducted for the recent review of the ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) found that 2016 regional average MDA8 ozone concentrations in the western US maximized in summer at ~52 ppb and that ~40 ppb of that maximum was contributed by ozone of natural and transported anthropogenic contributions. Thus, quantifying these trans-boundary background ozone concentrations has been identified as an important issue for a complete understanding of US air quality (e.g., see discussion in Introduction of Jaffe et al., 2018). Published analyses of temporal trends of these transported ozone concentrations vary widely, from early reports of increases to more recent reports of decreases. We show that the long-term ozone changes have been nonlinear, with substantial concentration increases (as large as ~5 ppb/decade) before the mid-2000s when a maximum was reached, followed by a small decrease of ~1 ppb/decade) thereafter. Superimposed on the overall changes is significant interannual variability that makes accurate determination of systematic trends over decade-scale time periods uncertain. The end of the previously increasing trends, and the recent decreases in transported ozone concentrations is good news for US air quality, as it eases the difficulty of achieving the ozone air quality standard.