Long-term assessment of resilience of avian assemblages following a major hurricane

Abstract

Strong tropical cyclones directly devastate forest habitats and indirectly affect forest-dependent animals. Many forecast models suggest cyclone intensity and size will increase as a result of climate change, and cyclone frequency also may increase. Short-term effects of strong cyclones on vertebrate assemblages are well documented, but we know little about longer-term effects. From 1997 to 2013 we monitored avian assemblages at tropical forest in southern Belize, a forest that was largely destroyed by category 4 Hurricane Iris in October 2001. We found little change in recruitment or species richness, but evenness dropped markedly the first two sampling efforts after the hurricane and species turnover (β diversity) did not stabilize until 6–9 years afterward. Body condition dropped immediately after the hurricane passed but recovered quickly. That population size of resident tropical, but not Neotropical migrant, bird species dropped across our 17-year study highlights the potential urgency of altered cyclonic activity: on average, a hurricane strikes Belize once per decade, yet an increase in frequency, to say nothing of destructive power, could serve to erode extant species associations, lead to local extirpation of forest-dependent species, and create novel, transitory assemblages whose chief characteristic is instability.