Long-term analysis from a cropping system perspective: Yield stability, environmental adaptability, and production risk of winter barley

Abstract

Abstract In the face of climate change, the potential impacts of adverse weather conditions on the productivity and vulnerability of cropping systems (CS) worldwide constitute a key agronomic issue upon which global food security depends. To date, little information regarding how the diversity of CS or agricultural practices affect the long-term yield responses of winter barley is available. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of CS diversity in terms of cropping sequences, organic matter supplies, and nitrogen (N) fertilization on the yield vulnerability of winter barley. Yields were evaluated in terms of their stability, environmental adaptability, and production risk (probability of yield loss). Data from a 27-year experiment were statistically analyzed using three mixed models giving residual maximum likelihood estimates including the Shukla stability variance index, the Finlay-Wilkinson environmental regression, and the Eskridge risk assessment approach. The results showed that winter barley grown in cropping sequences dominated by cereals had lower yield stability and environmental adaptability and greater production risks compared with winter barley grown in CS with higher crop diversity and additional organic matter inputs. When barley yields were compared at three doses of mineral N, the highest yield stability was achieved with the medium N dose (70 kg N ha−1), followed by the higher level of N (140 kg N ha−1). The most unstable yields with the highest production risks were observed when barley was grown without any mineral N fertilization. Overall, a higher level of crop diversity with organic matter inputs and intermediate N fertilization resulted in lower yield vulnerability in winter barley.