Abstract
This paper considers the influence of uncertainty with respect to GDP and population – total and age structure – on long-run environmental impact projections. A simple model, based on the stochastic version of the IPAT equation, is used to generate projections of two environmental impacts for which population has a demonstrated influence – carbon emissions from transport and residential electricity consumption. The paper examines the sensitivity of those long-run projections to uncertainty regarding possible future GDP and population growth/change. The following are demonstrated: 1 if the medium path for either population or GDP is to be believed/trusted, then uncertainty with respect to the growth/change of the other factor is unimportant 2 uncertainty with respect to population projections has a greater effect on environmental impact projections than does uncertainty with respect to GDP projections – despite that the degree of uncertainty associated with population is smaller than the uncertainty associated with aggregate economic growth.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callMore From: International Journal of Global Environmental Issues
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
