Long-run energy scenarios for Cambodia and Laos: Building an integrated techno-economic and environmental modelling framework for scenario analyses

Abstract

This article analyses energy trends in Cambodia and Laos and constructs future scenarios. The target is (i) to compare different scenario methods, (ii) to construct scenarios with these methods, (iii) to analyse the future energy demand and the related CO2 emissions and (iv) to analyse the potential role of renewable energy sources and their impact on CO2 emissions.Decomposition scenarios have been constructed based on the trends of the drivers of the energy consumption and CO2 emissions. More detailed scenarios have been constructed using combined LEAP/LINDA models to take into account the structural socio-economic and technological changes in the energy system. The paper provides a novel combination of bottom-up modelling and macroeconomic modelling. The constructed scenarios indicate rapid increase in energy consumption and related CO2 emissions mainly due to the fast economic growth and industrialization. Increase in fossil fuel use in electricity production in the future increases the emissions considerably.The potential of different renewable agricultural residues is analysed to evaluate the possibilities to reduce the CO2 emissions and fossil fuel import dependence. The reduction potential is considerably large in both countries.