Abstract
This study established a long run relationship in rainfall, yield and prices of soya bean, rice and maize for (1975-2009) period in Nigeria. Annual secondary time series data on selected parameters were collected in thirty six states including Abuja in six agro ecological zones and analysed. The result revealed that mean yield of soya bean, rice and maize in Nigeria were 0.52 mt/ha, 1.76 mt/ha, 1.38 mt/ha respectively. The average price of soya bean, rice and maize were N80, 316.38, N95, 044.85 and N85, 140.00 per ton respectively. Average rainfall figure was 1953.51mm/annum with the range of 594 to 4,046. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test of stationarity revealed that rainfall; yield and prices of soya bean, rice and maize were non stationary at level but stationary on first differencing. The Johansen Co integration analyses revealed a long run equilibrium relationship among rainfall, yield and prices of soya bean, rice and maize. Further analysis using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) on these variables showed that soya bean price had a negative influence (-0.11) on soya bean yield, variation in rice prices had no significant causal influence on rice yield.
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